Nearly 30 House members who were sworn in at the start of this Congress have launched campaigns for other, more prestigious offices. Voters have not been especially interested in granting them promotions.
The trend was on full display in recent weeks: Rep. Randy Feenstra lost the GOP nomination to be Iowa governor Tuesday despite a late endorsement from President Donald Trump, just as Rep. Dusty Johnson fell short in his bid for governor of South Dakota. A week prior, Rep. Chip Roy lost a runoff to be Texas attorney general.
House Democrats have been similarly hapless. In the Illinois Senate primary, Reps. Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi both lost to the state’s lieutenant governor, and in Texas, Rep. Jasmine Crockett fell to a state representative in the Democratic Senate race.
Some of those who have been on the campaign trail this year have a simple explanation for the trend: It’s hard for members of a dysfunctional and unpopular institution to ask voters to reward them with even bigger jobs.
“There’s definitely those out there who think, ‘Well, it’s broken, and they’ve been in it a long time, and obviously it’s still broken,’ so we kind of get the blame for it,” said Rep. Buddy Carter, who fell short last month in making it to a runoff in Georgia’s Republican Senate primary.
Even as public sentiment toward Congress has crashed to historic lows and partisan mudslinging has crescendoed to a fever pitch, some House members have found success.
Rep. Mike Collins advanced in the race Carter lost and has led most polls of the GOP runoff. Reps. Andy Barr and Ashley Hinson are now the Republican Senate nominees in Kentucky and Iowa, respectively, and Rep. Julia Letlow is the favorite in a GOP Senate runoff in Louisiana. One Democrat sworn in for the 119th Congress, New Jersey’s Mikie Sherrill, is now governor.
But if congressional service was once considered a helpful asset not so long ago — half of last year’s elected class of freshmen senators served previously in the House — members now fear that their time on Capitol Hill has become politically toxic.
In the races House members are losing, state-level officials and political outsiders have found more success.
“The voters all across the country aren’t particularly fond of D.C., so are you perceived to be part of the establishment or someone that’s been battling it?” said Rep. David Schweikert, who is now running for the GOP nomination for Arizona governor.
As he spoke to a reporter in the Capitol, he held a mug with the words, “I’d rather be in Arizona.”
Schweikert is facing a colleague, Rep. Andy Biggs, in next month’s primary. Polls suggest either man would face an uphill battle to unseat Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.
Other House members are finding long odds as they look for seats in the Senate or in state houses — even as some distance themselves from their current positions.
In Tennessee, for example, GOP Rep. John Rose has trailed Sen. Marsha Blackburn in public polling even as he plays down his service in Washington. In one recent ad, he identified himself as “a father, a farmer and a CEO,” and his website also makes no mention he is a sitting member of Congress.
Tuesday’s GOP primary for South Carolina governor could at least temporarily extinguish the political careers of two more other members, Reps. Ralph Norman and Nancy Mace. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette was already a front-runner in several public polls, and won Trump’s endorsement last week.
The pileup of losses could weigh even more heavily on House leaders who have struggled to get members to show up for votes in the closely divided chamber. Speaker Mike Johnson has already canceled multiple voting days this year to accommodate House members’ primary schedules, and the risk of no-shows is likely to increase.
For instance, Dusty Johnson, usually a reliable leadership ally, missed votes Wednesday just as a contentious effort to curb Trump’s military campaign against Iran hit the House floor.
There are, of course, many reasons for success or failure in politics, and some members who have been on other ballot lines this year have been more careful about attributing their fortunes to the House itself. Roy, for instance, pointed out that he was facing a largely self-funded opponent — an oil-and-gas executive who poured $17 million into the race and was able to use the funding advantage to connect with voters.
“You just got to go to where the voters are,” he said. “Some guys have gone out, done well. Some have not.”
Kelly, whose House career is ending after 14 years representing a Chicago-area district, blamed bad timing, insufficient fundraising and other pressures as reasons she and other members have struggled.
“Most people highly respected me for my work in Congress,” Kelly said in an interview. “Even the ones that didn’t endorse me out loud.”
Still, voter sentiment is growing clear to many lawmakers, who are warily watching their own races ahead of November.
“People are anti-incumbent,” said one House Republican who is seeking reelection and was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “They’re mad. They want change across the board.”
The rest of the year is likely to be a mixed bag for House incumbents. GOP Reps. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma and Harriet Hageman of Wyoming appear to be well on their way to winning Senate nominations — and general elections — in solid red states. Polls show Rep. Byron Donalds is on track to be Florida’s next governor, and Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore is well-positioned to win an Alabama Senate seat if he can emerge from a competitive Republican runoff.
But Democratic Reps. Angie Craig of Minnesota and Haley Stevens of Michigan have struggled to break out in their respective Senate primaries. If he can emerge from a crowded primary field, GOP Rep. John James faces a tough general election in the Michigan governor race, as does Rep. Tom Tiffany, a Republican running for governor in Wisconsin.
All of them will have to convince voters that their years of service in Washington are worth rewarding.
“I was a mayor for eight years, I was a state legislator for 10 years, I’ve been in Congress for 12 years, and I feel like that’s important,” Carter said. “I think experience and that service is invaluable [but] I think it kind of worked against me in a lot of ways … just being in politics for so long.”
